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jonesh

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PostSubject: Future of world power   Fri May 22, 2009 4:17 am

Some many months ago before Barrack Obama was president i was reading a report in the Guardian newspaper ( For people who aren't from the UK its a popular news paper though i don't normally read it for those who are from the UK! lol! ). Any way this report was from the National Intelligance council and what it reported was propably one of the most intreseting thing i have ever read. It stated that in 2005 the most powerful economies were:

1) US
2)Europe
3)China
4)India
5)Japan
6)Russia
7)Brazil

In 2025:
1)US
2)China
3)Europe
4)India
5)Japan
6)Russia
7)Brazil

This change will bring about a huge powershift. It is also indicated that China will become a major superpower "China is poised to have more impact on the world over the next 20 years than any other country".

How will the Chinese use this influence they already have ships in the gulf of Aden and i have heard that they own several mineral mines in Africa.

Will chinese expansion be dictated by the needs of their massive population? or will it muscle flexing in order to show the world and most likely america to show that its age of dominace may be at an end. Perhaps it will be to sread ideology simular to the cold war.

my question is what will china do with its influence?

how will America and the world respond?

any comments on the report.

i will also make other topics on stuff like this if anyone is interessted.
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United Republic IA

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PostSubject: Re: Future of world power   Fri May 22, 2009 5:26 am

I read this article online it concerns me greatly. The growing of the Chinese economy is not surprising they are about 1/3 to 1/2 of the world population with a labor force like that I am surprised it toke this long. I believe that as there economy grows they will begain to put pressure on the surrounding countrys, and the world at large to embrace there world view. The diffrence I think will be that they will try to exert their control though business as opposed to military force as the Soviet Union did; at first any way. I only hope it doesn't turn out all iron curtain wonce they have built up a higher level of power and influence in the world. I also think that mabye by allowing trade and their people to experience capitalism they may be shooting themselves in the foot. because as their people are gaining access to the internet and unfiltered information. The Chinese people seem to becoming more favorable of Western society, so it might turn out all right ( Smile fingers crossed Smile ).

I am hoping that the world responds by encouraging there people to take avantage of their new found freedoms; because once you get a taste of freedom it is addictive. Very Happy

But the worlds response will most likely be the standard politically correct one nothing. silent
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jonesh

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PostSubject: Re: Future of world power   Fri May 22, 2009 5:34 am

"The Chinese people seem to becoming more favorable of Western society, so it might turn out all right ( Smile fingers crossed Smile )."

or it might turn into a full blown revolution like the last days of the USSR. Very Happy

However people need to watch the chinese nation because they are going to have a huge affect on times to come. And they will rise to power in a sneeky way like dominating buisness as you siad.

americas reaction? i don't know at this time i'll have to think on it some more.

whats more is that they are part of the Shangai pact or i think its called that at least and people worry that it is a asian NATO. The Chinese will probably aim to be the top dog in that alliance though they will have trouble diong that with Russia and India (i think India is part of the Pact in fact i am almost certian but i am sorry if i'm wrong) in the way.
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PostSubject: Re: Future of world power   Fri May 22, 2009 5:51 am

Very true our eyes should be locked on the Chinese government just as they should be on any government with this kind of power. I am in the US military and I still cant say I trust the government. Although I do have faith that the American government wont just sit idly by if they begain to act in a hostel manner to their people or the world at large. I dont know how involved America would be willing to get though I hope more then they currently are. Which other then non-profit groups is almost 0.
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jonesh

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PostSubject: Re: Future of world power   Fri May 22, 2009 6:08 am

I don't know how the UK and the EU will react but i hear the EU and China had a litttle row over Tibet.

however the UK,USA and some of the EU are tied uo in Iraq and against the Taliban.

The Russian might have a little competition with china over the leadership of the Shangai pact.

Though the Russians are tied down in regional conflicts and the Missile sheild in eastern europe.
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PostSubject: Re: Future of world power   Fri May 22, 2009 6:15 am

Yeah things sure are pretty complicated right now I only hope that we arent to preoccupied to be ready to help out in China if (In my opinion when) the time comes.
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PostSubject: Re: Future of world power   Fri May 22, 2009 6:22 am

like the bear and the Dragon scenario but its vice versa because China invades Siberia and the US helps Russia defeat the Chinese.

i don't know who would win if the Russians went to war with the Chinese with no nukes involved and no intervetion. The chinese have a large population and industry not to mention their army.

Howver the russians have a good industry despite alot of it shutting down. the Russians are in the Guiness book of world records for a tank force of over 22,000 or something along that line. Though some of them are probably out of date. They also have artillery peice stashed away from ww2 but i guess they do the job and are relativly expendable.


Last edited by jonesh on Thu Jul 30, 2009 3:53 am; edited 1 time in total
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PostSubject: Re: Future of world power   Fri May 22, 2009 6:32 am

Yeah if something like that were to happen I dont know who would win. The Chinese on paper most likely have the more powerfull army, but the ferocity of the Russian military can never be counted out. The Russian people have also always showed a powerful ability to ramp up production in times of war. Altough I dont see a scenario like this ending well ether way.
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PostSubject: Re: Future of world power   Fri May 22, 2009 6:37 am

Both economies would be screwed very badly altough the Chinese would have to advance very far in order to get the russian industrial areas which are behind the Urals.

I also read somewhere that China could go to war with India over Kashmire or the USA over Tiawan.
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PostSubject: Re: Future of world power   Fri May 22, 2009 6:45 am

Yeah that chatter has been going on for some time the situation is very tense I dont see it coming to blows anytime soon, but I grantee that if China messes with Tiawan the US response wont be pretty.
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PostSubject: Re: Future of world power   Fri May 22, 2009 6:58 am

I can agree with that. who would win though. And if China was the agressor then would NATO be involved? bearing in mind that NATO gets involved if a member is attacked and not nessicarily the attacker so if the US then declared war on China for invading Tiawan (considering the worst case scenario) then perhaps NATO (or at least not all of it) will not declare war.
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PostSubject: Re: Future of world power   Fri May 22, 2009 11:38 am

I actually completely agree I think NATO would get involved but most likely not as a whole ether way.
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PostSubject: Re: Future of world power   Fri May 22, 2009 11:55 am

Say if NATO did not get involved then who would win between China and the US?

either way its a world changing event though the US are technolgically superior and propably have more of a navy and airforce but if their tied up in the war on terror...........
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PostSubject: Re: Future of world power   Fri May 22, 2009 12:07 pm

I think it would be a pretty cazy and chaotic fight that would hopefully end before it went to full scale war, because in a war between China and the US I dont think there would be a winner. Looking at it in another way the navy and airfore is pretty close by, and would most likely be redeployed.
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PostSubject: Re: Future of world power   Fri May 22, 2009 12:16 pm

I guess so both economies would be wrecked but then again the EU would probably help america get back on its feet. Russia and the other Shangai pact might help China. I think the fighting would be breif and probably stay on the Island of Taiwan. If the Chinese went into full scale war and took out Japan. Then the world economyb would suffer more than it is at the moment and then your looking at a post 1930s depression world. Maybe a Communist France and Italy because they have a prominet communist presense i also heard on the news (BBC) that America (well soem Amerians atleast) was turning its back on democracy and moving towards socialism i saw this as an odd trend as America is well know for defending capitalism the same goes for Europe.

i did say that the US was technolically superior but the same issue of the Gaurdian said that China is winning the battle for cyber supremancy and they are using their new found talent agressivly.
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PostSubject: Re: Future of world power   Fri May 22, 2009 1:54 pm

Your pretty much spot on. You have a pretty good understanding cheers
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PostSubject: Re: Future of world power   Sat May 23, 2009 2:26 am

Thanks very much.

i'll probbly make more topic on this report.
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PostSubject: Re: Future of world power   Sat May 23, 2009 10:45 am

However if China went to war with India (which could be more likly than China going to war with Russia because of India's interest over Kashmire) then that would be a completly different story.

The aggressor will probably be India because it is their interest though i guess it could be either way if circumstaces dictate.
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PostSubject: Re: Future of world power   Sat May 23, 2009 12:37 pm

Yes I do think that India V China is the most likely real world occurrence, and is the one that scares me the most. In a fight between India and China I dont know what side the rest of the world would take especially if India was the instigator. Could be messy
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PostSubject: Re: Future of world power   Sun May 24, 2009 12:52 am

The world might just act as a peacekeeper and just break it up. However they are very powerful so they might just ignore the rest of the world and carry on. Though the world could bite back with trade sanctions and other penalties.

India is also exapnding its army, it is thought that its purpose is for these territorial quests. However it is also being expanded because of pakistan which is in trouble a the moment. The article i read however was written before the Mumbai attacks abd so now they have a more important role in anti-terrorism.

Congratulations on making moderator Smile
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PostSubject: Re: Future of world power   Sun May 24, 2009 6:53 am

Yeah I would like to think that world organizations would intercede. I hope that mabye Inda, Chia and pakistan have come far enough as modern countrys to know that fighting a war between nuclear powers is not feasible. I have a hard time decideing whether the nuclear era has made world relations better or much worse; I would say better as long as they realize that to use them is crazy.

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PostSubject: Re: Future of world power   Sun May 24, 2009 10:35 am

Hopefully with the introduction of missile sheild technology the treat of nuclear weapons should be lessened at least.

however if a nuke is aquired by terrorist who want to detonate it and not launch it then we are in trouble.

and as for weahter it has made the world i better place, i don't know, we hav'nt had world war 3 well at least not yet.
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PostSubject: Re: Future of world power   Mon May 25, 2009 1:34 pm

I do think that most developed countries wouldn't use nuclear arms because they know no one wins that war. If some crazys ever do get there hands on nuclear weapons we are all in trouble because they will bring it in on a truck not in a missile. The main thing I think about is if that where to happen what if the terrorist did not take responsibility who would be held responsible; who would be blamed?
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PostSubject: Re: Future of world power   Mon May 25, 2009 2:07 pm

north korea are on to look out for.
even though they have ok relations with the chinese i've heard that they have been acting like a spoilt child when it comes to negotiations with other nations. They have just tested a load of new short range missiles over the last 48 hours.
south korea and countries like indonesia are pretty worried, and obama and brown both seem pretty pi**ed off.
i wonder whether we could see another war on the korean peninsular in the near future
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jonesh

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PostSubject: Re: Future of world power   Mon May 25, 2009 2:26 pm

I saw that on the news tis morning and i was not impressed. I have often thought about another Korean War and it is very much possible and probable. Though we in the west would have to be very careful because thats country is China's sphere of influence. They would get very concerned and very agressive. We would have to cooperate with china in the event of a war because if we win then China will have western armys outside its doorstep.

I also heard there missiles can reach Australia and as i said before if they hit Japan then the Asian economy and the world economy will be affected. The Japanese are pretty annoyed.
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